Good stuff, as always. Future Shock is one of my favorite features on BP, always look forward to it.

"He's also a plus-plus defender at first base with good lateral movement and great hands." I found those comments about Freeman interesting. He also has a good arm. Some teams wanted to draft him as a pitcher out of high school. I'm sure you can see where I'm headed with this. His bat might turn out to be merely adequate for first base. But for third, he would be an above average hitter. And Chipper ain't young.

Pretty good for Medlen to outpitch Hanson from the outfield spot ;)

"Vizcaino's ceiling tops that of any other pitcher in the system, by a significant margin."

Copy pasta alert!

In regards to up the middle talent, McCann, Escobar, and Heyward/Schafer aren't enough? Or just strictly in terms of the prospect level.

"He's arguably the best pure hitter in the game" What about Pujols, Mauer, A-Rod, Adrian Gonzalez, Braun, Hanley Ramirez? You can argue Heyward is better, but I assert that you would lose the argument, and quickly.

Why is Kris Medlen listed as 'OF' in the Under 25 list.

How far up is Schafer's upside, do you think?

I'm surprised that Mycal Jones made the list and Dimaster Delgado didn't.

Despite people getting all over me about my complaints about the meaningless-draft-position-based-ephemera contents last time, it looks like Kevin came through and delivered actual fun-facts this time! elmo! estonia! 0.08 era! That's what I'm talking about. Thanks Kev!

Sorry to nitpick, but it's "Colombia," not Columbia. Columbia is the university. Colombia is the country. Or perhaps Teheran is the child of academics? In which case, no worries!

By the way, by your description (and by the numbers, more or less), it's hard to differentiate between Teheran and Delgado. Is the difference in better secondary stuff? More projectability for Teheran? Or...?

Hey Kevin, great read. Would you consider the Braves farm Top 10? With all of their high upside pitching talent + Heyward, they'd have to be, right?

I am a little confused about Tehran. BA says "Weaknesses: Teheran is still learning how to pitch. His physical stamina needs some work, and scouts have some concerns about his mechanics, which aren't effortless. He has a long arm rotation in the back of his herky-jerky delivery that creates deception but attracts questions about his durability. " Kevin says "His clean, effortless delivery allows him to fill up the strike zone with ease, and the pitch features considerable natural sink." Is there a lot of different opinions regarding his mechanics? He did have shoulder problems in 2008.

Jason Hayword is a god among men. Matt Wieters is SOOOOO 2009.

Kevin,

A couple of things, how can Freeman be a four star prospect and then summed up by saying he is not an impact player? Also is Heyward a legit 30/20 threat or am I greatly over rating his base running? Thanks if you get a chance to reply.

Just can't see how Vizcaino merits five stars as a 19-year old in short season ball. I think you had it right the first time. To me anyway, it seems like too many players in the rankings are given five stars.

KG--great list, great read! Nice to see JJ Hoover get a bit of love, but I've read that he's got a nice 4-pitch mix and a good FB, so why not top 10 material? The numbers were great in Rome...

Freeman and Heyward are both guys who at age 19 don't project so well in their current season, but still have at least five years of expected growth.

Freeman
2009 277/335/458 344
2014 309/367/561 394

Heyward
2009 296/363/503 373
2014 327/397/610 424

Freeman now is meh as a 1b, but could be a Top 5 at the position within 5 years.

Heyward would be well above average now, and in the future could put Matt Wieters to shame.

You look at how the player has performed so far, in which leagues, at which ages, and how did everyone else in the past develop. You try to keep the sample sizes large, and regress to the mean to mitigate when they're not large. The further into the future you look, the larger the uncertainty.

I wondered if players who already had power by age 19 (Stanton, Heyward) might not grow as much, already be closer to their peak. I grouped hitters by low, medium and low HR%, but there was no significant differences in the aging curves for HRs.

But, I think there's a very good chance that Freeman could hit for average and power, an average amount of walks, while making very good contact. He should be an above average MLB first baseman, but we have to see how he does in 2010 and then recalculate. And Heyward looks like an excellent chance to be a star, one of the five best hitters in the minor leagues right now.

Kevin,

Is it just me or has Atlanta's system weakened a bit in the last five years? It looks like they have four great prospects and then a bunch of filler. They used to have boatloads of talent...esp before they made the horrible trade with Texas for Teixeira.

KG - Brian McCann missed the under-25 talents list by a few weeks. If you had to include him in there, where would he fit. Heyward wouldn't be above him, would he?

KG--thanks for the response! I appreciate it!

I remember a few days before the 2007 draft, I wrote in the comment section in some blog that the Pirates should go get Heyward if they're too cheap to take Wieters. They took college pitcher Danny Moskos and signed him for more than what the Braves gave Heyward. Moskos basically spun his wheels in AA this past season and at this point might never make it to the majors. Makes me mad thinking the Pirates passed up two big talents in Wieters and Heyward in one draft to get a career minor league relief pitcher...

The Mets do that all the time too.

Pathetic.